The Flying Cow Problem

I had to smile at this when I came across it in this past Sunday's New York Times Magazine - -

There is an element of uncertainty in every complicated engineering endeavor.  "In July 2003, in the Pacific, a Japanese fishing boat was sunk by a flying cow," Robert Bea told me.  Bea is a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, and a leading scholar of risk; he also spent many years working in research and management at Shell.  The cow, it turned out, was part of an illegal cattle shipment bound from Anchorage to Russia; as the plane approached its destination the smugglers became nervous about their cargo and began shoving it out of the plane.  "No risk analysis can ever be complete.  No one can predict a flying cow."

The story may be comical, but the insight and importance is deadly serious.  The seriousness is increasingly an issue for engineers - - from climate change uncertainty to terrorism risks to energy disruptions - - our flying cow moments should be of concern.  If you cannot model or predict with any level of certainty our flying cow events - - then what?

The issue becomes one of resilience - - where resilience is defined as the ability to bounce or spring back into shape, position, etc. after being pressed or stretched.  The fundamental concept is the linkage between resilience and the ability to recover after a physical stress.  You cannot predict the flying cow taking down your pump station.  The issue then becomes your organizational abilities to adapt and the speed with which you can get the pump station back online.

Think in terms of the Four R's presented below - -

1. Robustness - - the inherent strength or resistance in a system to withstand external demands without degradation or loss of functionality. 
2. Redundancy - - system properties that allow for alternative options, choices, and substitutions under stress.
3. Resourcefulness - - the capacity to mobilize needed resources and services in emergencies.
4. Rapidity - - the speed with which disruption can be overcome and safety, services, and financial stability restored.

The Four R's of resilience have individual technical, organizational, social, and economic components that will need consideration.  This will require engineers to engage in educational exercises, risk communication, strong and innovative leadership, effective planning, and adequate fiscal resources.  At first glance, these issues and responsibilities do not appear to be directly associated with engineering and technology.  However, all of them must be informed by accurate, up-to-date science, technology, and information made possible by partnerships and networks among communities, governments, and scientists and engineers.

Are you prepared for the next flying cow?